Happy New Year!
Sort of…
Kind of funny, I was really expecting some super things to happen at the end of 2025. I thought for sure, that consumer discretionary stocks would go up at least 5 dollars. I was reading all those economic articles about how spending was up this year for Christmas, and well… it had to be. Let’s face it, between inflation, the tariffs, the supply chain issues, the trade wars, and job losses, you might be buying fewer things, but you are paying more. So spending was up, but volume was down.
And this was supposed to be the Santa Claus Rally. And all those people out there on the finance news are saying (in a cheery voice) that over the year, the indexes are up by double digits! But lately, things have not been so good. At least not in what I am seeing in my portfolio. I guess everybody is trying to maintain a positive attitude.
I am going to do the same. Yup, I am standing my ground on all the stocks I have so far. I like them. They are good companies, and I think they have great prospects to at least remain flat or slightly up in 2026. I expect that most of them will go down over the next few months, but by the time we hit 2027 I suppose that there will be some real changes.
Let’s face it. The midterm elections happen in 2026, and people say that it really affects the stock market. So, I think, 2026 is going to be a draw. Volatile, a lot of ups and downs, but I’m thinking that it will be overall flat. Yes, AI will continue to march forward, and data centers will be built, and energy grids will be strengthened. But the action is just going to be superficial. In my view, anyway.
Don’t take my word for it! I mean, I have no training in this stuff! I’m telling you what I think. So, I have picked out a couple of ETFs to open up the year with. They are both covering most sectors, but their mix is very different. They cross over on a few companies but even then, the percentages are radically different. It will be fun to watch and see how those differences change the performance.
The biggest selling point for me is that neither one has Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta in the top 10 holdings. I know, that sounds weird, but I am starting to think that I should not include them in ETFs since I own their stock anyway! I’ll let you know when I have made my move.
