It’s too early!
It’s early in the morning and I have had my first cup of coffee and watched some video information on Yahoo Finance already. I’ve read a couple of articles too, especially about Scott Bessent about how Treasuries are losing favor in Japan, because their Treasuries are starting to pay some interest now. I am just starting to look at Treasuries and learn about them so I don’t totally understand. I want to get involved though. I do own a bunch of United States Savings Bonds which I bought a while ago with some tax return money. But I admit, I don’t really understand them either!
Sometimes you just make moves to make moves and that was one for me. I had the opportunity and I took it. I don’t know what to do with them yet, so they just sit in the safe and are waiting for me to figure it out. But I don’t understand what all the changes Scott is making while trying to keep up with it by reading the articles.
There is also a G20 meeting going on right now, and the AI companies like Nvidia and Open AI are in there pitching for AI and how it needs to grow. They are preaching FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) to as many countries as they can.
But it’s early yet and trying to get my head around it is almost painful.
Yesterday
Yesterday was a kind of blah day. I took some time to listen to some of my favorite mentors as my stock portfolio value went down and down some more. They weren’t kidding when they said that September can be a bad month for equities. They also said that it’s really both September and October and November is only mildly better. There’s some good news eh?
I guess the bond market isn’t doing all that well either. Usually when equities go south, the bonds become a safe haven for investors, but that might not be the case at this point. And with Scott Bessent fooling around with Treasuries, it’s like there is no where to run.
September 15th
There will be another meeting of the FED on September 15th, and people are talking about if the FED will raise the interest rates or not. Right now, most people think that they will raise them which is (of course) totally the opposite of what the president put Kevin Warsh in place to do. I’m afraid that the president will be disapointed.
Toilet Paper Wars
Remember in the pandemic when the shelves were cleared out of Toilet Paper? Stores had to limit the amount that you could purchase and still ran out. I remember a story about a guy who bought several pallets of toilet paper from Costco and put them in his garage. He planned on selling them for 100 dollars a roll or something like that. I think he sold one (to his mother) and got stuck with the rest. He tried to return them to Costco and it was denied. Ha, I bet he still has lots left. Karma hits hard sometimes!
Anyway, because the supply chain for toilet paper is coming from Canada which just got hit with a 50% tariff on wood and paper products, we all expect that the cost per roll is going to practically double. This is the president’s idea of making life more affordable. But there is some fear that people are going to start hording toilet paper just like before. Fortunately, I have a 12 pack in my basement and half of one in my upstairs closet.
How long will this last? Who knows? Canada is striking back on September 8th with their own tariffs to counter attack. But I’m sure that prices will go up, and never come back down again. This will cause inflation, and the FED will have to raise rates in response, It’s kind of like the president saying to Warsh that he wants him to wash his car, but then saying he’s taking it on a road trip and Warsh has to run along behind with his bucket and sponge as he drives off road through the mud flats. There’s a visual image for you! Sorry Kevin.
Expectations for the day
I expect we’ll see some more drops in the S&P 500 today. Probably even more in the Nasdaq as tech stocks will probably take the brunt of the losses. I’d like to say that today will be a recovery day as Thursdays usually are, but I am not hopeful right now. I think this is going to be a week of just holding on tight and bounce along for the ride.
Geo-politically I haven’t heard much. The president is set to meet with China’s president Xi next week I think. I hope that goes well and nobody loses their temper. I’m not too worried about Xi because he seems like a reasonable person, but our president has a short fuse sometimes and does some pretty crazy stuff because of it. He might rename some body of water in China, because “that will teach them!”
Nothing much happened in Iran as far as I can tell. The Pentagon doesn’t run these things past me, so I have to go with the news reports, which were quiet on that subject this morning. I did watch some report on the water situation in Iran which is interesting. Seems they have a real water shortage problem. They have been over using their underground water, and the rivers flowing into the country are drying up. The government is pushing resources to big companies that give them money, and the common people are suffering. But that happens everywhere.
So in summary
I guess we will be watching and waiting as things progress. Chevron might be a good bet since they will be dumping 7 Billion into Venezuela and getting the bulk of the oil there.They were down a little this morning and if they go much further, I might buy a little bit. But other than that, I think I am staying out. I’ll be watching. We’ll see.
